The Dogecoin and XRP ETFs race is heating up, with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) set to deliberate on these crypto ETFs and possibly approve them. Market expert James Seyffart has given his opinion on which of these crypto ETFs the SEC will likely approve first.
Market Expert Reveals Approval Odds For Dogecoin And XRP ETFs
In an X post, James Seyffart revealed that the US SEC will likely approve the Dogecoin ETFs before the XRP ETFs. Seyffart and fellow Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas put the approval odds for Dogecoin ETFs at 75% and the approval odds for XRP ETFs at 65%. These market experts alluded to the fact that the Commission likely considers DOGE a commodity, which they believe cannot be said for XRP just yet.
Seyffart also explained that the SEC will unlikely approve the XRP ETFs until it settles its long-running litigation against Ripple. This long-running legal battle between the SEC and Ripple had bordered on whether XRP was a security, which explains why these experts seem to believe that it could still impact the SEC’s decision on the XRP ETFs.
However, it is worth mentioning that Judge Analisa Torres already ruled that XRP isn’t a security, so it’s unlikely that the Commission would reject these funds based on this ground. In the meantime, the SEC has yet to acknowledge the 19b-4s for either the Dogecoin or XRP ETFs. Grayscale and Bitwise have filed to offer Dogecoin ETFs. Meanwhile, Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, REX Shares, and CoinShares have all filed to offer an XRP ETF.
Seyffart and Balchunas predict that the SEC will likely acknowledge these Dogecoin and XRP ETFs this week. The deadline for the SEC’s decision on these funds does not start counting until the Commission acknowledges the 19b-4s. These market experts also believe that the SEC and Commissioner Hester Peirce’s crypto task force will untangle some of the security and commodity implications from lawsuits by year-end 2025.
A Litecoin ETF Could Come First
These market experts have also predicted that the US SEC will likely approve the Litecoin ETFs before the Dogecoin and XRP ETFs, with approval odds at 90%. Similar to DOGE’s situation, these experts noted that the Commission likely views LTC as a commodity.
However, the Litecoin ETFs have the edge over the Dogecoin ETFs, as the SEC already acknowledged Canary’s 19b-4. As such, the deadline for the SEC’s decision on the Litecoin ETFs has started ticking, with the final deadline coming up on October 2 this year.
Meanwhile, the Dogecoin ETFs have higher approval odds than the Solana ETFs, which stand at 70%. However, the Solana ETFs have an edge over the Dogecoin and XRP ETFs because the US SEC already acknowledged the 19b-4 for these funds.
