Morale is down in Bitcoinland and so are the number of DAA. Does this mean that we already reached the top of this cycle? It might, but that’s not set in stone. We’re in no man’s land and our compass is pointing everywhere at once. Technical indicators contradict each other, and nobody seems to know which way is up. Nevertheless, historically, the Daily Active Addresses index has been useful in these situations.
The previous time this happened, Bitcoinist reported:
The data reflected that there are now fewer wallets that send or receive Bitcoin on a day-to-day basis. Santiment asserts that DAA correlates strongly with the asset’s price action.
“For example, throughout Q1 of 2019, the DAA were steadily growing way before the market started to recover,” the portal wrote in DAA’s introductory note. “Same holds true for July 2019, when a decline in DAA preceded a decline in price.”
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Make sure to notice that we’re referring to “wallets that send or receive Bitcoin on a day-to-day basis,” Daily Active Addresses are the strong indicator. We’re not talking about non-zero BTC addresses, which, as we reported, reached an all-time high two months ago. However:
Historical data indicates that the number of non-zero addresses was no longer a dependent variable of BTC’s price action since late 2017 and early 2018. As such, we can conclude that an increase in total addresses will not directly equate to Bitcoin rallying. Still, a strong growth in the number of wallets suggests that Bitcoin has much more room to grow.
Is the top in? This chart seems to think so. | Source: Arcane Research
What Does The Daily Active Addresses Drop Indicate?
According to Arcane Research, “the sudden drop in on-chain activity corresponded with the latest price correction.” No surprise there. Part of the course. Then they say, “historically, larger drops in on-chain activity corresponded well with market tops.” Panic. Was that the top already? No way! Well, Arcane Research promises to keep an eye on the indicator, because further drops might set 2021’s top in stone. However:
We have seen several drops in on-chain activity followed by sharp recoveries in both price and activity historically, so this is not necessarily a guaranteed top signal. Time will tell.
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That’s a relief. Nevertheless, both the chart and the Daily Active Addresses statistics paint a bleak picture. Luckily, there are a number of indicators that point in the other direction, like this one. Plus, we’re in the midst of it. In retrospect, everything will make sense, but right now no human being has the necessary perspective to see the whole picture.
BTC price chart on Bingbon | Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com
It’s also worth pointing out that Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain steel-solid and that governments around the world continue to print bills like there’s no tomorrow. So, the case in favor of Bitcoin still stands, regardless of the price. The graphs might be pointing down, but the value of the Bitcoin network remains the same.
Featured Image by Kamil Pietrzak on Unsplash - Charts by TradingView