Bitcoin continues to range tightly between $88,000 and $81,000, with bulls struggling to build momentum amid a backdrop of growing uncertainty. Despite several attempts to push higher, BTC has been unable to break through resistance, and price action remains choppy and directionless. The lack of conviction reflects broader market tensions as investors grow increasingly cautious.
Financial markets remain unsettled, largely due to the unpredictable behavior of U.S. President Donald Trump. His recent push for new tariffs and aggressive rhetoric has added another layer of volatility to an already fragile macroeconomic environment. Risk assets like Bitcoin are feeling the weight of this uncertainty, unable to mount a sustained recovery.
Adding to the cautious tone, top analyst Axel Adler shared on-chain metrics via X, highlighting a significant drop in the Token Transfer Volume Change 90DMA indicator — a measure that tracks the smoothed percentage change in transaction volume over time. Adler noted that this metric has now fallen to its lowest levels in the current cycle, signaling a dramatic slowdown in network activity.
With transfer volume waning and price stuck in a tight range, Bitcoin now faces a pivotal moment. Whether bulls can spark a breakout or bears push lower will likely define the next phase of this cycle.
Bitcoin Struggles To Regain Momentum As Transaction Volume Hits Cycle Low
Bitcoin bulls lost control when the price surged toward $87,000 but failed to reclaim the crucial $90,000 mark. This rejection signaled a loss of momentum, and since then, selling pressure has resumed. What started as a minor upswing and wave of optimism has quickly faded, leaving Bitcoin range-bound and vulnerable to further downside.
Broader macroeconomic instability continues to weigh on risk assets. Financial markets remain tense amid ongoing uncertainty, driven by geopolitical instability and erratic policy decisions from global leaders. Bitcoin, once seen as a hedge, is now trading with a high correlation to broader market sentiment, and recent price action reflects that fragility.
Axel Adler pointed out that the Token Transfer Volume Change [%] 90DMA — the 90-day simple moving average of daily percentage changes in transaction volume — has now dropped to its lowest point in this cycle. In simpler terms, this indicator measures the average shift in on-chain activity, filtering out short-term noise. The current drop (represented as a yellow bar) suggests a sharp decline in transactional activity.
While this may appear bearish on the surface, Adler believes it marks the end of major sell-offs. According to his analysis, current transaction volume has returned to levels observed at the beginning of this bull cycle. This could indicate that the excess has been cleared from the market, setting a more stable foundation for the next leg up.
With bulls still struggling to reclaim momentum, this phase may act as a reset. If support holds and confidence builds, Bitcoin could be primed for another rally — but only if bulls step in to reverse the recent weakness.
Technical Details: Key Levels To Hold
Bitcoin is trading at $84,200 following a weekend selloff that pulled prices away from recent highs and reignited bearish pressure. The market remains fragile, and bulls are now focused on reclaiming the $86,500 level — a key resistance zone aligned with the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA). A decisive move above this level would signal renewed strength and could open the door for a broader recovery.
However, momentum remains weak, and BTC has yet to show a convincing reversal. If bulls fail to push above $86,500 in the near term, selling pressure is likely to intensify. A rejection from this zone could result in Bitcoin slipping back toward key support, with the $80,000 level once again in play.
A drop below $80K would mark a significant breakdown in structure and likely shift sentiment decisively in favor of the bears. For now, all eyes remain on BTC’s ability to reclaim the 4-hour MAs and reestablish short-term bullish momentum. The coming days may prove pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin can regain its footing — or if a deeper correction is just getting started.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
