With bitcoin price never experiencing a lower yearly low, is it correct to say the top-ranked crypto has ever been in a bear market?
Has Always Been a Bull Market for Bitcoin
It is common to come across mention of narratives like “the 2018 bitcoin bear market.” Why, because the BTC price fell by close to 80% during the year.
However, the BTC low for 2018 was around the $3,100 price mark reached in December 2018 in the aftermath of Bitcoin Cash civil war.
Despite the BTC price [coin_price] ‘bubble’ popping in 2018, it still set a higher low than all other previous years. In fact, bitcoin has never set a lower yearly low.
Viewing the BTC price action on a macro level, it seems somewhat accurate to say BTC/USD has never actually been in a bear market.
Commenting on the matter, Bitcoinist senior market analyst FilbFilb notes that bitcoin has never left the bull market on the macro level. He explained:
Yeah, it’s a bull market, still a bull market. Wasn’t ever a bear market. If bitcoin does not put in a lower low on the macro level, does it mean we never entered a bear market? On a macro level, I’m thinking the answer is yes.
Considering the Present BTC Price Action
So far in 2019, BTC has generally set higher lows. However, bitcoin failing to hold $7,500 during this current wobble, then that trend could be broken.
Major support for BTC currently lies even lower, somewhere around the mid-$6k mark. Back in mid-May, BTC broke $6,500 before pushing on to $9,100 less than a fortnight later.
Tweeting on Monday, bitcoin analyst Josh Rager declared that staying above $7,500 was critical to BTC experiencing a price pullback.
https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1135706303966437376
Retracements Are Pit Stops on the Bullish Circuit
With bitcoin spending the last few days hovering around the mid-$7k region, there is the inexplicable talk of the bull market being over. This is despite bitcoin’s 120% gain thus far in 2019.
But while bullish fatigue can result in notable pullbacks, the overall long-term trend for bitcoin price remains on an upward trajectory.
In fact, it is quite common for bitcoin bull-runs to experience 10 to 30 percent drops amid a parabolic rise. Using 2017 as an example, there were no less than eight of such temporary price retracements.
Right but bull runs have many 10-30% drops. Most consumers can't handle that type of PP vol.
And remember we also have exchange fee, and mental coordination costs.
— Dan Held (@danheld) June 6, 2019
During that period, BTC skyrocketed from $966 at the start of the year, topping out at nearly $20,000 in mid-December.
There are many factors that contribute to these retracements – profit scalping at certain price levels, value compression to create new entry points, etc.
The steep parabola created by such a sharp spike alone was ominous to experienced traders of a looming market correction but that hardly signals the end of long-term bullish advance.
As Bitcoinist reported, Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model may be en route to a $100 trillion market cap that would exceed gold due to its set-in-stone scarcity that will become increasingly felt in the coming years.
Do you agree with the assertion that bitcoin has never been in a bear market? Let us know in the comments below.
Images via Shutterstock, Twitter @ChartsBtc, @Josh_Rager and @danheld