On-chain data shows the largest of Bitcoin holders have been slowly shifting back to buying while the other cohorts have continued to distribute.
Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Showing Initial Signs Of Market Shift
In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score has changed recently. The “Accumulation Trend Score” is an indicator that tells us about whether the Bitcoin investors are accumulating or not.
The metric makes use of the balance changes happening in investor wallets in order to make this estimation. Additionally, it also weighs the accumulation or distribution against the balance size of the wallets displaying such behavior, making is so that large investors have a higher influence on the metric’s value.
When the value of the indicator is close to 1, it means the large entities (or a large number of small traders) are participating in accumulation. On the other hand, it being near 0 suggests the market is in a phase of distribution (or the investors are simply not accumulating).
Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score over the past year:
Looks like the investors have been distributing for a while now | Source: Glassnode on X
In the chart, a dark shade corresponds to accumulation, while a light one to distribution. As is visible, the metric achieved a very dark color during the rally that occurred in the last couple of months of 2024, implying intense accumulation was happening in the market.
This year, though, the trend has flipped, as the indicator has achieved a light shade corresponding to a value close to zero. Given this distribution from the large holders, it’s not a surprise that Bitcoin has been facing bearish price action.
Interestingly, very recently the indicator has been showing an increase, with its value now above the 0.1 mark. This could mean some buying has been taking place at the recent lows. “While distribution remains dominant, this shift suggests early signs of accumulation,” notes the analytics firm
As mentioned before, the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score puts more emphasis on the larger entities. This can mask the behavior of the smaller investors, so here’s another version of the indicator that shows the metric’s value separately for the various trader cohorts:
The behavior doesn't appear to be uniform across the groups at the moment | Source: Glassnode on X
From the graph, it’s apparent that the largest of Bitcoin holders, those holding more than 10,000 BTC, have seen the metric rise for them recently, implying a slow shift towards buying.
Interestingly, while these mega whales have displayed this behavior, the whales (1,000 to 10,000 BTC) have continued to participate in aggressive distribution. The smallest of investors, the shrimps carrying less than 1 BTC, have been following suit with the whales in their selling.
As Glassnode explains,
This trend suggests that while broader sell pressure persists, some large entities are starting to absorb Bitcoin supply. Whether this marks a turning point or just a temporary pause in distribution remains to be seen.
BTC Price
After all the sharp action, Bitcoin has gone calm recently as its price is still trading around the $84,000 level.
The trend in the BTC price over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView