As the presidential election approaches, former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning have risen to just over 30% on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, which puts him up against Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris.
With just 15 days to go until the election, the stakes are high for both candidates, especially in the context of cryptocurrency regulation, which has become a major issue in the race.
Trump Gains Favor Among Crypto Enthusiasts
Both Trump and Harris have made public commitments to support the growth and adoption of digital assets, distancing themselves from the Biden administration’s approach, which has been characterized by regulation by enforcement, lawsuits and continuous scrutiny of the industry led by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under Chairman Gary Gensler.
Harris, however, has taken a more ambiguous stance on cryptocurrency, with fewer speeches dedicated to the sector compared to Trump. In her recent remarks, Harris unveiled a new economic proposal aimed at enhancing opportunities for Black Americans, pledging to boost their access to the crypto industry.
The Vice President stated her commitment to supporting a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, which she believes would provide “more investment certainty” for the 20% of Black Americans who own or have owned digital assets.
Conversely, Trump’s rhetoric has resonated more strongly with the crypto community. He has indicated that, if re-elected, he would enact significant changes at the SEC, including the potential firing of Gensler on his first day in office.
Trump has also articulated ambitious plans for Bitcoin, suggesting the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve aimed at leveraging the cryptocurrency to help reduce the US national debt, which currently stands at $35 trillion.
All around, the Republican Party’s robust support for the cryptocurrency industry starkly contrasts with the more cautious approach of many Democrats.
Numerous Republican senators and representatives have rallied behind Trump’s economic proposals, with Senator Cynthia Lummis leading the movement.
Not only that, but a recent report from Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin could soar to between $80,000 and $90,000 in the wake of a potential Trump victory and return to the White House.
Polymarket Sees $2.2 Billion In Election Trading Volume
Amid the buzz surrounding the US election and the growing support for Donald Trump among crypto whales, Bloomberg reports that Polymarket is stepping up its efforts to verify the geographical location of users.
Per the report, Polymarket is currently re-evaluating the details of its users, particularly those placing significant wagers, to ensure compliance with its operational rules. A source familiar with the situation confirmed to Bloomberg that the platform is focusing on “large spenders,” to maintain adherence to these regulations.
Notably, a user identified as Fredi9999 has placed more than $18 million in bets on Republican outcomes, with nearly $13 million allocated to the primary presidential market, making them the largest bettor on the platform.
However, Fredi9999 is not alone in placing substantial bets. Blockchain analysis conducted by online sleuths FozzyDiablo and Domahhhh, supported by research from Arkham Intelligence, suggests that Fredi9999 and three other accounts may be linked to the same individual.
Collectively, these accounts have spent over $43 million on Republican outcomes, with none being registered in the US, according to the source.
Polymarket’s US presidential betting markets are its most popular offering, with over $2.2 billion in trading volume for this election cycle. But, as of Tuesday, other prediction platforms also show favoritism to Donald Trump’s chances, with 59% on PredictIt and 60% on Kalshi.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $67,470.
Featured image from NBC, chart from TradingView.com